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YEN 2024-12-06T11:37 財經茄呢啡 據彭博在10月進行的調查顯示,超過一半的經濟學家預測日本銀行本月會加息,三成表示會在明年1月進行。
YEN 2024-12-06T11:36 財經茄呢啡 有報道引述知情人士表示,當局傾向於明年1月才行動。目前交易員預計,日本央行在12月份加息的概率約為36%,低於上周後期的66%。
YEN 2024-12-06T11:32 財經茄呢啡 日本央行行長植田和男已表示,由於日本通脹及經濟走向符合預期,下一次加息的時機正臨近。
YEN 2024-12-06T11:31 財經茄呢啡 日本央行將於12月18日至19日舉行議息會議。日本央行政策委員會最鴿派委員之一的中村豐明表示,未排除本月加息的可能性,他不反對加息。
YEN 2024-12-06T11:31 財經茄呢啡 市場預期略升溫,日圓上升,兌美元再升穿150關,每百日圓兌港元再觸及5.2水平。中村豐明指出,對於薪資上升的可持續性沒有信心,認為從2025財年開始,通脹可能不會保持在2%。
YEN 2024-12-04T13:47 財經茄呢啡 隨著薪資成長推動服務價格上升,薪資和物價將進入上漲循環。日本央行內部估算,在通膨率為2%的情況下,基準利率可穩定在1%-2.5%之間。
YEN 2024-12-04T13:47 財經茄呢啡 過去一段時間內日本的通膨率持續高於央行目標2%,10月日本CPI及剔除新鮮食品和能源價格後的CPI均按年上升了2.3%;東京11月份CPI按年升幅加快至2.6%,剔除新鮮食品及能源價格後的CPI按年升幅亦擴大至1.9%。
YEN 2024-12-04T13:46 財經茄呢啡 另一方面,10月日本服務業PPI年漲幅也加快至2.9%,顯示勞動成本正在推高服務業通膨,進一步為日央行升息提供了依據。
YEN 2024-12-04T13:46 財經茄呢啡 植田和男指出,在監測美國前景不確定性及金融市場等外部風險時需保持謹慎,但不會等到這些風險完全消退才進行升息。事實上,兩年期公債殖利率本週攀升至2008年以來的新高,這也是對持續升息的預期反映。聯準會與日央行政策分歧的縮小將支持日圓逐漸走強,但若聯準會或日本央行放緩貨幣寬鬆步伐,美元兌日圓下行路徑可能會更為波動,並可能間歇性反彈。
YEN 2024-12-04T13:45 財經茄呢啡 日本央行總裁植田和男在上週四接受《日經新聞》採訪時指出,通脹指標及其他經濟數據已進入預期發展軌道,顯示下一次升息即將來臨。這標誌著自7月升息以來,貨幣政策正常化再次成為可能。
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