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China Banks 2023-05-16T11:55 財經茄呢啡 匯豐證券最新評級出爐,下文將歸納5月15日匯豐證券發布的最新數據,8只股票評級皆是「買進」。其中包括工商銀行 、建設銀行 等背景雄厚的高息內銀股,下文詳述睇好原因。
China Banks 2023-05-16T11:32 財經茄呢啡 大摩上調中信銀行(0998)評級,由「低配」升至「與大市等配」,目標價升1倍至4.9元,民生銀行(1988)評級亦由「等配」升至「超配」,目標價升65%至4.3元。不過大摩指光大銀行(6818)和重慶農商銀行(3618)近期缺乏增長動力,均下調評級至「低配」。
China Banks 2023-05-16T11:32 財經茄呢啡 摩根士丹利發表報告,去年內地為刺激經濟和樓市而下調貸款基準利率,拖累部分國有大行淨息差下跌,影響淨利息收入,即使今年復蘇不平均,但相信內地銀行在今年下半年穩定淨息差,並上調部分較市場化的中小銀行淨息差預期,及溫和下修部分國有大行淨息差預期。
China Banks 2023-05-15T12:17 財經茄呢啡 格隆匯5月8日亅跟隨A股銀行股的拉升走勢,港股內銀股集體跟漲。青島銀行、江西銀行漲超6%,浙商銀行漲超5%,中信銀行漲超4%,中國銀行漲超3%,郵儲銀行、渤海銀行、重慶農村商業銀行、民生銀行、工商銀行、農業銀行等漲超2%。
China Banks 2023-05-15T12:17 財經茄呢啡 該行預測內銀今年利潤表現將較具彈性,將今明兩年利潤及收入預測調低1%及2%,以反映淨息差收窄7至8個基點及費用調低5%的預計,當中部分被減值消減及稅率調低所抵銷,預測農行、交通銀行及郵儲行收入表現將跑贏同業。建銀國際認為今年內銀利潤按年增加會繼續改善至5%,相應將在港上市內銀股目標價調高最多25%。
China Banks 2023-05-15T12:17 財經茄呢啡 避險需求。美國地區銀行數度出現破產,存款繼續流出,表明危機尚未解除,而內地的國企內銀股在亞太區銀行股中,具有最低的啤打和最高的股息回報率,當外部動蕩上揚時板塊成為相對的「避風港」,故預測離岸資產將進一步轉向內銀股。
China Banks 2023-05-13T11:50 財經茄呢啡 中央擬有序消減銀行負債成本,緩解低息環境對內銀利潤影響以至「讓利」的壓力。繼今年4月傳出政府要求內銀降低定期存款利率後,消息指中國市場利率定價自律機制日前通知,自下星期雙雙,降低銀行協定存款及通知存款利率自律上限,削減幅度介乎0.3至0.5厘。有投行相信,減存息有助改善內銀淨息差及利潤增加,惟預料對整體存款市場的直接影響較小。
China Banks 2023-05-13T11:50 財經茄呢啡 據報中國全國市場利率定價自律機制日前指示銀行,自下星期一(15日)起,降低銀行「協定存款」及「通知存款」自律上限,內銀股先升後回,工行半日微跌0.4%,建行跌1.21%。
China Banks 2023-05-13T11:50 財經茄呢啡 內銀近年在淨息差及股本收益上一直承受壓力,是次中央下調協定及通知存款自律上限,反映政策官員看到內銀的壓力,以及低息環境對內銀利潤的影響,恐因此影響其抵御風險及支撐穩定信貸供給的能力,認為銀行為公共服務「讓利」的壓力將可消除。
China Banks 2023-05-13T11:50 財經茄呢啡 該行又相信內銀股淨息差能有多大改善,要視乎企業存款需求及銀行淨息差水平。對國有銀行而言,企業存款占整體存款約22%,預測淨息差可改善2至3個基點。對信行、民行及招行等股權制銀行而言,淨息差可以改善5至8個基點,這與類似銀行企業存款需求占比較大,招行及信行的企業存款需求達37%,同一時間企業存款利率較高,達到介乎1.3至1.4厘。
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