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China Banks 2024-08-28T11:44 財經茄呢啡 對於內銀業績,方偉昌認為,市場不太關注內銀股的利潤增加及淨息差,主因已沒有估計,但內銀股價仍穩健,反映資產並不太擔憂基本面,資產買進內銀並不是為增加,而是為派息,故派發中期息將成為板塊的正面因素。
China Banks 2024-08-28T11:44 財經茄呢啡 國內頂流大行中金細數內銀股有6個基本面、3個資產面,合共9個上揚邏輯,支撐內銀股重估、國有內銀產生超額回報。展望未來3個月至6個月,中金相信國有大行估值仍有15%至30%的上揚空間,股息率略有收窄,但從6個月至12個月的時間維度,需要關注信貸增速下行、存量房地產債務的處置、居民償債傾向對基本面的影響。
China Banks 2024-08-27T11:51 財經茄呢啡 星展銀行(香港)豐盛私人客戶執行董事鄧威信預期,內銀業績唔會有太大驚嚇或驚喜,因為內銀股業績透明度較高,唯一可能同市場預期有落差系呆壞帳撥備,因為依家經濟唔好,唔少內房陷財困,會直接影響內銀。至於內銀利潤增加,佢預期,將錄得輕微倒退或低單位數增加,又預期派息比率唔會有太大改變,即保持約30%。
China Banks 2024-08-27T11:51 財經茄呢啡 對於內銀業績,方偉昌認為,市場不太關注內銀股的利潤增加及淨息差,主因已沒有估計,但內銀股價仍穩健,反映資產並不太擔憂基本面,資產買進內銀並不是為增加,而是為派息,故派發中期息將成為板塊的正面因素。
China Banks 2024-08-27T11:51 財經茄呢啡 多間內銀今周發布業績。投資銀行高盛預期,4大國有內銀當中,只有農行的中期利潤有望維持平穩,工行、建行及中行的利潤或會倒退約1.5%至2.4%。該行相信,內地上月調降貸款市場報價利率10個基點,或拖累今年內銀淨息差收窄1.6個基點,而淨息差或要到明年下半年才穩定在1.3厘。
China Banks 2024-08-27T11:51 財經茄呢啡 國內頂流大行中金細數內銀股有6個基本面、3個資產面,合共9個上揚邏輯,支撐內銀股重估、國有內銀產生超額回報。展望未來3個月至6個月,中金相信國有大行估值仍有15%至30%的上揚空間,股息率略有收窄,但從6個月至12個月的時間維度,需要關注信貸增速下行、存量房地產債務的處置、居民償債傾向對基本面的影響。
China Banks 2024-08-26T11:43 財經茄呢啡 高盛發表報告,預期內銀在今年第二撥備回撥消減,調降內銀撥備前盈利及淨盈利預計,平均調降幅度分別為1.6%及0.2%,預期兩者分別按年跌3.5%及1.4%。因應淨息差或收窄,將內銀股今年至2026年撥備前經營溢利及純利預計調降1.8%及0.9%,以及將內銀H股未來12個月目標價平均調降2.4%。
China Banks 2024-08-26T09:39 財經茄呢啡 中證監近年鼓勵上市公司增加分紅,內銀由以前每年只派末期息,改為日後既派中期息也派末期息,其實很多大型國企或央企,大股東都是中央政府機構,所以若內銀股增派中期息,不單止小股民得益,對作為政府的大股東亦有好處。加上內銀股的股息率往往高於中資電訊股,故此是首選板塊。
China Banks 2024-08-26T09:39 財經茄呢啡 中銀國際證券白韌指出,內地房地產市場的問題會對內銀資產質素有一定衝擊,但有關衝擊是可控的,例如對資本充足率及派息能力基本上都沒有影響,所以內銀防守性絕對上是穩健的。
China Banks 2024-08-24T11:45 財經茄呢啡 內銀股業績期下星期殺到,市場憧憬內銀會派中期息,甚至有分析指,內銀股可能是仍未放榜慨股權中,較值博慨板塊。不過,有大行看空內銀股,其中,高盛最新一口氣削7只內銀H股目標價。
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