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Emerging markets 2022-11-26T10:43 財經茄呢啡 TS LOMBARD新興市場宏觀策略董事總經理JON HARRISON也示警,因美元走強,新興市場貨幣不會有喘息空間。
Emerging markets 2022-11-26T10:43 財經茄呢啡 據五大壽險金控到第3季底統計,總持有約1.6兆元新興市場債券(主權債及類主權債)較上季提升435億元或2.8%,主因是台幣貶值推升市值,其中以中信金、富邦金單季更反向大減各5%及1%,顯示第3季大砍新興市場債,調低投資風險意味濃厚。
Emerging markets 2022-11-26T10:43 財經茄呢啡 美元雙率雙升預期持續到明年,也將逐步加速2023年經濟衰退,金融市場動蕩加劇,全球高回報債、投資等級債信用利差(指經濟衰退疑慮加深)可能擴大、新興市場主權債值利率也會走揚,對整體金融業股債評價壓力仍持續升高。
Emerging markets 2022-11-26T10:43 財經茄呢啡 強勢美元令到熱錢從新興市場出逃,引發許多新興國家貨幣面臨重貶,市場點名,阿根廷、巴基斯坦、土耳其、匈牙利等國將會是高風險「雷區」;而野村控股近日也出具報告直言,新興市場貨幣的脆弱性創下20余年來新高,其中,匈牙利、羅馬尼亞、捷克更因財政和外部環境挑戰加劇,未來1年內恐面臨匯價風險。
Emerging markets 2022-11-26T10:42 財經茄呢啡 美國聯准會暗示有意放緩升息步伐,正減輕其他國家央行的升息壓力,也讓新興市場經濟體央行得以喘口氣,因為阻貶本國貨幣的負擔變小。
Emerging markets 2022-11-09T10:41 財經茄呢啡 過去一周在美國聯准會正式升息、優於預估的就業數據及持續釋出的財報數據等多空交雜訊息拉扯下,全球股市走勢震蕩仍大。依據美銀引述EPFR統計顯示,過去一周包括亞洲不含日本、歐非中東及已開發歐洲等地股市資產呈現淨流出狀態;美國、拉美及全球新興市場則迎來資產淨流入,資產流向表現分歧。
Emerging markets 2022-11-09T10:41 財經茄呢啡 -- 從花旗到摩根士丹利,基金經理們都在為通膨觸頂和聯儲會調降貨幣政策鷹派程度進行布局:他們首先關注的是新興市場貨幣。
Emerging markets 2022-11-09T10:41 財經茄呢啡 今年以來美元走強、人民幣持續貶值和烏克蘭戰爭對新興市場貨幣做成了不利影響。《彭博》監測 23 個發展中國家匯價中,今年迄今只有4種貨幣兌美元是升值;而MSCI 對新興市場貨幣的衡量今年已下滑約 8%,接近 2008 年危機期間創下的 8.7% 的創紀錄年度跌幅。
Emerging markets 2022-11-09T10:41 財經茄呢啡 資金管理公司AXA將明年成長國家經濟提升率由1.1%下修至0.1%,不過,新興市場則保持3.9%的經濟增速,尤其拉美地區上修至2%、亞洲地區更上修至5.1%,顯示新興市場經濟動能具有韌性。經濟學者預估明年上半年,新興央行態度相較今年將顯得更中性、下半年轉為降息,有助於推動新興市場債券的漲升行情。
Emerging markets 2022-11-09T10:41 財經茄呢啡 至於新興市場債券資產流向部分,富達進一步相信,新興市場美元債基金連11周賣超,單周賣超19.8億美元;新興市場當地貨幣計價債基金更連30周賣超,單周賣超15.6億美元。
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