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Emerging markets 2021-07-28 10:38 財經茄呢啡 整體而言,預料環球經濟今年將增加6%,與其4月份的預料相同,與去年萎縮3.2%的情況相比則大幅攀升。IMF調高了對發達經濟體今年經濟增加的預料,但其正面效應被對新興市場和低收入國家增加預料的調降抵消。
Emerging markets 2021-07-28 10:38 財經茄呢啡 美國7月消費者信心意外增強,顯示當局有幫帶動施打新冠疫苗、重啟經濟讓民眾更加樂觀,也符合國際貨幣基金最新報告趨勢。IMF在27日調整各地展望,上修先進經濟體成長預料、調低新興經濟體的預料,反映已開發國家逐步重啟經濟,新興市場卻仍為新冠肺炎疫情所苦,反映復蘇差距拉大。
Emerging markets 2021-07-28 10:38 財經茄呢啡 ●IMF調降多個新興市場的經濟增加預料,其中疫情嚴峻的印度今年增加預料削3個百分點至9.5%,中國今年增加預料亦調降0.3個百分點,至8.1%。
Emerging markets 2021-07-28 10:38 財經茄呢啡 若美聯儲局重新檢視通脹預料及采取預防行動以收緊貨幣政策,將對新興市場造成雙重壓抑,加劇資本流出及提升有關市場信貸成本。
Emerging markets 2021-07-24 11:16 財經茄呢啡 疫情反覆使股市動蕩加劇。下半年雖環球經濟持續復蘇,但分化明顯,動能出現放緩跡象。環球經濟改善與疫苗接種高度類似,成熟國家接種有序進行,經濟明顯修復。新興市場接種不均且緩慢,普遍仍陷疫情深淵。因此全球疫情蔓延仍可能使經濟進一步陷入停滯甚至衰退。
Emerging markets 2021-07-24 11:16 財經茄呢啡 隨著美國fed開啟縮減購債計劃進程漸近,越來越多的新興市場經濟體開始著手應付。俄羅斯央行於周五(23日)將關鍵息口調高100個基點至6.5%。
Emerging markets 2021-07-24 11:16 財經茄呢啡 但中長期而言,據渣打銀與永豐金控最新的總經報告,解釋之所以看中長期美元下挫走勢將延續,原因出如今部分央行為了抑制通膨而開啟升息循環,預估會為新興市場貨幣帶來支持。
Emerging markets 2021-07-24 11:16 財經茄呢啡 定期定額部分,保德信投信建議,除了追求報酬,也需要考量風險,此時平衡型台股基金、平衡型陸股基金因為具有債券部位,能有效調降整體產的動蕩度,而當市場成長時,也能參與漲升行情;全球型股票基金因為布局范圍大,且成熟、新興市場兼具,也是理想標的。若想投資債券資金,則建議持有美元高回報債、新興市場企業債。
Emerging markets 2021-07-24 11:16 財經茄呢啡 新興市場債也是高回報債的一種,新興市場的政經狀況不容易掌握,加上有匯價的風險,馮志源建議配比不要太高,最多一○%,譬如,南非幣值動蕩大,雖然可能領息四%至五%,但資本利得動蕩幅度達一○%,若是下挫,報酬率並不劃算。
Emerging markets 2021-07-21 10:38 財經茄呢啡 全球總體經濟環境進入中期復蘇,股市同步激烈震蕩。富達投信直言,下半年全球投資展望關鍵字在IMF,通膨、大趨勢、多重資金(MULTI-ASSET)、財報,美國貨幣政策不至於大幅轉彎,通膨應屬可控。需留意新興市場貨幣政策的不確定性。
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