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瑞郎 / 瑞士法郎 / CHF

 
 
 
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2025-02-12 瑞士央行不太可能回歸負息口區間,不過有望結束降息周期(將息口從當前的0.5%降至0.0%)。這一政策方向對瑞郎做成支持。同一時間,環球經濟不確定性和中東地緣政治緊張局勢也提升了避險資產流入瑞郎。綜上,美元受益於穩健的就業數據與緊縮預測,而瑞郎則因政策穩定和避險需求可能迎來升值,未來兩者走勢將取決於各自的貨幣政策和國際風險心理的變化。
 
 Comment:瑞郎走勢
2024-09-04 在避險需求和資金流入的帶動下,近期瑞郎的實際有效匯率大幅上漲,目前瑞郎被過度高估,日圓則是G10貨幣中被最嚴重低估的貨幣之一。瑞郎匯價上漲對瑞士出口產業造成困擾。
 
2024-09-04 瑞士央行從年頭至今已下調政策利率3次,至1.25厘,是主要央行中減息幅度最大的一員,亦是日央行以外目前政策利率最低的主要央行。有跡象顯示瑞郎已為成套利交易的新寵,可能為瑞郎兌日圓創造更多下行空間。
 
2024-09-30 瑞士央行如預期減息25個基點,以應付通脹急劇降溫。然而,這項措施似乎並未能有效支撐瑞郎匯價,因為瑞士央行8月外匯儲備連跌4個月,降至6940億瑞士法郎。在美元走軟的情況下,美元兌瑞郎可能會測試0.8370的支持位。
 
 
 
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