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Fed施密德:通膨最後一哩路困難對9月降息有所保留美股US Stocks Quote - 外圍新聞內容Golbal News Content @ 2025-08-22T Back Hot News
Keyword:聯儲
Concept:聯儲降息
高盛料聯儲局9月重啟減息
7月非農報告對前值的大幅下修,堅定了市場對於9月減息的信心。即便同期的核心消費者物價指數(CPI)與生產者物價指數(PPI)按年增速雙雙反彈,卻絲毫未減幣策寬松的樂觀預期。芝交所FEDWATCH數據顯示,9月聯儲減息概率高達96.2%,年底前有望降息0.75厘。目前押注9月減息0.5厘的期權合約高達32.5萬份,權利金成本約1000萬美元。這意味著若如期減息這一幅度,上述頭寸將獲利1億美元。
聯儲局若干官員近期頻頻暗示減息在望,市場焦點已轉向最能把握減息機遇的增長股。利率下降不僅能降低企業融資成本,更可刺激消費,令高增長企業估值水漲船高。
目前市場人士多預期聯儲局下月將會重啟減息。據CME「美聯儲觀察」數據顯示,聯儲9局月維持利率不變的機會率為13.9%,減息25個基點的機會率為86.1%。10月維持利率不變的機會率為6.5%,累計減息25個基點的機會率為47.5%,累計減息50個基點的機會率為46%。
雖然美國聯儲局主席鮑威爾在7月聯邦公開市場委員會新聞發布會上表示聯儲局采取觀望態度是合理的,但這次溫和的通脹數據,加上上個月疲弱的就業數據,為放寬貨幣政策提供了支持的理據。市場將密切關注鮑威爾下周在傑克森霍爾(JACKSON HOLE)研討會上的主題演講,該會議歷來被視為聯儲局未來幾個月政策方向的指標。基本預期維持為聯儲局將於今年年底前實施兩次降息,每次25個點子。

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