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【勞工市場轉弱】美國9月減息機會急升至95% @ 2025-08-07T Back Hot News
Keyword:減息 聯儲局 降息 兩次
Concept:美聯儲降息 , 美國聯儲局
恆生銀行財富管理首席投資總監梁君馡亦表示,最新的利率期貨顯示,市場對美國今年余下時間減息次數的預期降溫,由6月初預測減息兩次,下降至現時的一次。環球股市方面,她提到,近3個月來受惠於美元大幅下滑,多個主要股票市場連續上升,於7月紛紛攀升至歷史高位。她提醒,若美元因貿易談判和聯儲局議息會結果而出現更急速的反彈勢頭,料股市短期內可能出現更多獲利回吐盤,因此在投資部署上,她建議第三季加強債券投資,同時偏重高股息板塊以增強整體投資的防守性。
利率期貨數據反映市場對於減息預期降溫。本周初,市場幾乎肯定美聯儲將於10月減息,但會後10月的減息預期降至76%,年內減息次數亦下跌至不足兩次。張詩琪指出,會後聲明反映美聯儲對美國經濟增速未有早前樂觀,若未來通脹屬於短暫上升或經濟增速繼續放緩,聯儲局可能采取較積極的減息措施,預期第四季減息仍然是大方向。
舊金山聯儲銀行行長戴利周三表示,勞動市場已經疲軟,改變利率將重新調整政策,以更好地匹配聯儲局通脹和失業率目標的風險,目前風險大致平衡,認為今年兩次減息合適,但美聯儲或需要降息兩次以上。

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