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關稅戰亅瑞銀料聯儲局最多減息1厘撐經濟 標指有望年底回升 @ 2025-04-08T Back Hot News
Keyword:聯儲 減息 降息
Concept:美聯儲今年 , 美國聯儲局減息
美國總統特朗周三的關稅計劃較市場預期更嚴厲,促使投資者紛紛尋求避風港。貨幣市場目前預計聯儲局今年將利率下調四次、每次減息0.25厘可能性上升至50%,並預期今年第一次降息將出現在6月。
道明證券稱,貿易緊張局勢惡化可能促使聯儲局提前降息,10年期美債收益率到今年底可能降至3%。道明證券的策略師指,預計聯儲局首次減息時點,由7月提前至6月,預計之後每次會議都會減息,直至2026年5月。
美國上周公布的2月份CPI數據顯示通脹顯著回落,其中核心CPI按年增長3.1%,創下2021年4月以來的最低水平。本周市場焦點轉向美國聯儲局將於周三(19日)公布的議息結果,盡管通脹壓力有所緩解,但市場擔憂前總統特朗普的關稅政策可能導致經濟增長放緩,並重新推高通脹。目前,市場普遍預期聯儲局將維持利率不變,且今年可能減息兩次,首次減息或於6月啟動。
市場已經充分預期2025年至少會有兩次減息,第三次減息的可能性也很高。整體而言,他們預計今年的減降息幅度將達到約70基點。

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