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在岸人民幣兌美元小跌6點子再創14個月新低 @ 2025-01-03T Back Hot News
Keyword:人民幣
Concept:人民幣中間價
分析指,美元指數持續在兩年高位徘徊,市場對美國當選總統特朗普快將加關稅的預期未減,人民幣反彈動力不足,關注跨年後中間價釋放的政策信號。
在岸人民幣收市報7.2992元兌1美元,無升跌,全日波幅不足50點子。人民幣中間價升4點子,與市場預測偏離逾900點子,反映中央在年底繼續釋放維穩信號。
在岸人民幣兌美元創逾一周新低,收市報7.2992元兌1美元,下跌3點子,成交量偏低;中間價則升4點子,較市場預測偏離近1100點子。
短期來看,當前美元已經對於降息預期、特朗普上台以及潛在關稅風險等PRICE IN較多,美元指數缺乏進一步向上動能。近期央行對中間價報價、離岸人民幣流動性等方面的穩匯率政策強度提升,疊加全球重要央行議息會議均已結束、國內政策進入空窗期,預計人民幣匯率短期或圍繞7.3上下波動。展望2025年,美元指數或維持高中樞、潛在的美國對華加征關稅等外部擾動或是人民幣匯率最大的風險因素。但其中或也存在預期差,例如美國對華加征關稅的幅度和節奏或不及預期、中美積極展開經貿磋商以有效緩和市場情緒等,或階段性支撐人民幣匯率表現。

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