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惠譽:在美國關稅威脅下 降中國2026年經濟增長預測至4%財經新聞Financial News @ 2024-12-11T Back Hot News
Keyword:明年 中國 經濟增長
Concept:中國明年經濟增長預測
財經|渣打料明年香港經濟增長2.2%
渣打發表明年宏觀經濟展望,該行大中華及北亞區首席經濟師丁爽認為,雖然中國未來面臨美國關稅政策的挑戰,預計不會依賴大幅度的貨幣政策應對,料中國今年經濟增長預測為4.8%,明年則增長4.5%。
渣打料今年中國GDP增4.8% 明年預期為4.5%(賴俊傑攝)
【中國經濟】渣打料明年GDP增4.5% 人行再降准
有別於2018年開打的第一場中美貿易戰,劉潔表示,如今人民幣貶值至當年水平的作用不大,甚至可能收到更多外界負面反饋,畢竟中國其他貿易伙伴大可透過讓其本國貨幣貶值來應對。該行並預計,中國會維持明年經濟增長5%的官方目標,以免外界解讀為對貿易戰示弱,該行料明年內地經濟增長4.5%。
渣打料中國全年GDP增長4.8% 明年放緩至4.5% 有望再降准
摩通預期,美國應大約在明年首季宣布對華增加關稅,料由現時平均20%增至60%,於明年次季實施。若美國對華關稅增至60%,相信將對明年中國經濟增長拖累約2%。

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