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美聯儲理事沃勒指未來減息需更為謹慎美股US Stocks Quote - 外圍新聞內容Golbal News Content @ 2024-10-15T Back Hot News
Keyword:降息 減息 美聯儲
Concept:美聯儲降息
一周前市場認為美國有49.7%的可能年底時減至4.00%-4.25%,但到上周五這機率急跌至17.7%;另一方面降息至4.25-4.50%機率,卻從一周前的21.3%急升至上周五的80.2%,市場認為美國減息步伐變得更審慎。僅一周市場對美國息口預期出現如此大的調整,再一次印證筆者說過的話:經過長時間驗證期貨市場對美國息率走勢的預測,特別是遠期的預期,一般都是錯誤的。比如一直以來,市場原本是預計美聯儲於9月份只減25基點,但在議息前一周市場賭美聯儲會一口氣減50基點才突然急升,相信是市場有部份人收到消息。
美東時間10月9日(周三),美聯儲公布的會議紀要顯示,在截至9月18日的美聯儲貨幣政策委員會FOMC會議上,鑒於降低通脹方面取得的進展,以及「幾乎所有」與會者都認為實現就業和通脹目標的風險大致平衡,與會決策者一致認為應該降息,但他們對減息的幅度存在分歧。

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