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有聯儲局官員認為減息時機已到 @ 2024-09-02T Back Hot News
Keyword:降息 減息 聯儲
Concept:美國減息 , 聯儲降息
8月中發布的通脹和勞動力市場數據料為美國聯儲局9月份自主減息提供條件。期貨市場目前預計聯儲局將降息0.25厘的概率為100%,減息半厘的概率則約為25%。我們認為投資者應重新審視減息周期的應對策略,以調整投資組合做好萬全准備。
浙商基金通過觀察2000年以來美聯儲加息周期結束至首次降息期間港股各行業的表現發現, 「信息科技在整個減息周期內都有較強勁的表現,工業、能源、材料這些高股息行業有較為居前的收益,另外兩大類消費品也有不錯的表現。」
美國聯儲局舵手鮑威爾稱減息時機已到,滿足投資者押注9月美國降息之期待,隨之而來的是美匯指數走勢轉弱,以及非美貨幣來一場集體反攻,人民幣升勢尤其惹人矚目,畢竟如今中國資產估值仍然相對低迷,一旦人民幣快速大幅反彈,不難吸引游資流入中國市場炒作一轉,若當局能乘勢加大資本市場開放,吸引更多長期外資進場,這場中美貨幣戰可能要上新階。問題在於美國9月是否減息,並非毫無變數,得提防聯儲局又施展彈弓手,殺市場一個措手不及!
該行估計,聯儲局於9月就減息0.5厘,其後在11月和12月分別降息0.5厘及0.25厘。因此今年實際上會下調1.25厘。

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