Share This

Hot News

Fed稱通膨就業數據向目標接近 最快9月開始降息 @ 2024-08-02T Back Hot News
Keyword:減息 聯儲 新聞
Concept:聯儲局維持利率不變
筆者維持九月首次減息、十二月再減一碼、明年再減四碼的預測。市場給了104%的概率九月減息一碼(個別人評估可能減息兩碼),今年總共減息2-3碼。本周期的終極利率水平可能比首次降息的時機對投資者更重要,以目前的經濟環境和數據,筆者認為聯儲可能大約在2.5-3.0%附近停止減息,也就是減息可能延續到2026年。此預測沒有考慮可能出現的意外事件。
KLINGELHOFER又提到,鮑威爾在新聞發布會上重申通脹和失業風險已趨平衡,但仍委婉暗示9月是減息的合理基准情況。他認為,美聯儲將整體數據解讀為經濟良好,基於此情況,決策過急的風險似乎大於決策滯後。他提醒,投資者不應只關注首次減息,而是減息的次數。在不出現衰退的前提下,美聯儲一旦開始減息,或仍會非常緩慢地進行。
聯儲局主席鮑威爾在記者會上表示,如果數據支持,包括通脹率如預期般下降、勞動力市場保持穩定等,9月會議可能減息,指委員整體看法是,經濟正接近適合降息的水平。但他亦強調目前未有任何決定,一切取決於數據,官員希望看到更多良好的數據以增強信心。

Mobile | Full
Forum rule | About Us | Contact Info | Terms & Conditions | Privacy Statment | Disclaimer | Site Map
Copyright (C) 2025 Suntek Computer Systems Limited. All rights reserved
Disclaimer : In the preparation of this website, 88iv endeavours to offer the most current, correct and clearly expressed information to the public. Nevertheless, inadvertent errors in information and in software may occur. In particular but without limiting anything here, 88iv disclaims any responsibility and accepts no liability (whether in tort, contract or otherwise) for any direct or indirect loss or damage arising from any inaccuracies, omissions or typographical errors that may be contained in this website. 88iv also does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for purpose of the information contained in this website.