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博斯蒂克料聯儲局今年減息2次惟通脹仍有上升風險- RTHK @ 2024-02-18T00: Back Hot News
Keyword:聯儲 降息 減息
Concept:美聯儲降息
招銀國際:美國1月CPI和核心CPI環比反彈 預計美聯儲在5月啟動降息周期
基於當前美國強勁的非農和頑固的通脹數據,市場開始調降未來一年的降息預期。市場起初對美聯儲1月議息會議的反應過於樂觀,這與美聯儲主席鮑威爾的「鷹派」發言格格不入,而隨著美國勞動力市場及通脹數據的陸續公布,市場開始逐步確認鮑威爾的表態所言非虛。截至2月14日,期貨市場隱含的3月首次降息可能性已經降至10.6%,5月首次降息概率回落至41.6%,全年降息次數由接近6次逐步修正至不足4次。
美聯儲再度維持利率不變,強調在通脹持續回落至2%的信心增強前,減息並不合適。鮑威爾指出,即使有6個月的良好通脹數據,仍未能確定通脹可持續回落至2%。他多次提到需要有更多良好數據,有更強信心確定通脹持續跌向2%的目標。無法因為通脹回落,就機械式地調整利率。
目前市場的交易價格顯示,交易人士僅預期美聯儲今年將降息三次,第四次降息的機率有如丟銅板,符合美聯儲官員預期降息三次的看法。摩根資產管理公司預期美聯儲今年將降息三次,但經濟將能避免衰退。

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