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花旗估樓價三季跌7%打回原形 @ 2023-05-19T08: Back Hot News
Keyword:花旗
Concept:全年持平 , 花旗料本港樓價
《大行報告》花旗料本港樓價復蘇勢頭已完結 次季至末季間料跌7% 首選領展(00823.HK)及九置(01997.HK)
本港樓市小陽春歷時僅3個多月,踏入4月上旬便開始回落,年內中原城市領先指數(CCL)累計升幅由4月初的7.1%,收窄至上周的5.5%。 花旗發表香港樓市報告,維持今年整體樓價持平的預測,認為樓價經過首季急漲7%後,第二季至第四季將回調7%。該行看好零售市場多於住宅,看淡寫字樓,首選領展(00823)和九倉置業(01997)。 二手淡靜預示下行周期 花旗表示,樓市成交自3月起減弱,對復蘇短暫感到驚訝,近月每周二手交投量低,或意味樓價會重返下行走勢。該行上月已把本地住宅行業評級降至「中性」,因首季樓價反彈過急,嚇怕部分潛在買家;同時二手交投回落,樓市小陽春告終的時間較預期快,即使大量新盤推出,定價普遍較預期低。 每周二手成交連續兩個月處於低水平,花旗指出,美聯35大屋苑一周成交自3月尾開始低於80宗,並維持介乎35宗至63宗,根據過去三輪樓市調整期,當每周二手交投少於80宗且未能在短時間回升,便是樓價下行周期開始的訊號。該行估計這輪下行周期將持續至年底,到明年上半年美國聯儲局開始減息及農歷新年樓市小陽春再臨,本港樓價才有望反彈。

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