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《AH報告》巴克萊:工行去年業績穩健,維持H股目標6﹒4元 @ 2014-03-28T11: Back Hot News
Keyword:工行
Concept:淨利2630億元 , 銀行工行2013年日
工行去年純利增長一成,賺近二千六百二十六億五千萬元人民幣,好過市場預期。派發末期息每股26.17分人民幣,增加百分之九。
在此背景下,仍有人因為1-2月疲軟的經濟數據繼續大幅看空指數,我個人認為看空指數1600點下方非常不明智。因為在目前估值水平下,四大行的市淨率基本都在0.7X附近,所隱含的壞賬率大約在7.5%,再加上2.5%的撥貸比,意味著隱含的壞賬率在10%以上了,先不說10%壞賬率發生的概率有多大,就算真的發生了,目前的股價也足夠反映預期了。另外,利率市場化也類似,現在大行2.5%的淨利差(中行略低),參考國外市場利率化的經驗,淨利差會降到2%,但據此計算銀行依然能保持18%的ROE(目前工行的ROE是21.92%)。

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