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紐約盤前—歐央行意外減息25個基點,美國三季度GDP大幅好於預 @ 2013-11-08T07: Back Hot News
Keyword:降息 歐洲 歐央行
Concept:歐央行利率 , 歐洲央行降息
歐洲方面,重點關注今日歐央行利率決議。上周四公布的數據中,歐元區失業率再創新高,達到12.2%;而CPI年率初值卻低至0.7%,大幅低於市場預期的1.1%,顯示歐元區面臨通縮風險,經濟衰退程度加深,加大了歐央行降息的可能性。然而昨日花旗的最新調查顯示,僅有16.2%的受訪者認為歐洲央行可能在周四降息,41.4%預計降息時間點在12月,其余42.4%的受訪者表示不清楚。本公司研發部認為:由於歐元區當前利率水平處於歷史最低值,若再次下調,利率將至負值,對歐央行來說是個挑戰,因而在沒有確切證據顯示經濟加速衰退的情況下,歐央行會謹慎對待降息,不過歐央行對於經濟現狀的表述態度也至關重要。
(2)去年年中至今,歐元的不斷升值對歐洲的出口造成較大拖累,即使今年5月降息以來也保持升勢,導致今年歐盟的復蘇更依賴內需而非出口,在內需不足的情況下,如此強勢的歐元匯率將越來越影響出口復蘇。因此歐央行有必要降息以降低國內外息差,適當壓低歐元匯率以扶持出口,保護剛脫離衰退的歐元區經濟,避免復蘇脫離正軌。作為一個替代政策,歐央行也可以采取降息以外的舉措,比如,推行新一輪的長期再

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