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樓市「熊二」明年到陶冬料跌價兩成 @ 2013-10-04T04: Back Hot News
Keyword:陶冬 明年 瑞信
Concept:瑞信陶冬 , 香港樓市
瑞信亞洲區首席經濟師陶冬指出,目前本港樓市的成交淡靜,預期樓價會橫行一段時間,但隨著未來美國將會退市,預期明年下半年前後,本港銀行有機會上調按揭利率一厘,預期屆時本港樓價會下跌一成半至兩成。
新浪財經訊 10月3日下午消息 瑞信亞洲區首席分析師陶冬今天表示,香港樓市目前成交冷清、市場萎縮,短期不會大幅下跌,不過明年樓價會出現明顯下降,預測將下降15%到20%。他表示,明年樓價下跌的主要推動因素是美聯儲退市,市場進入加息周期,按揭利率或上調1厘,此外內地資金退出香港也是一大因素。
就本地樓市,陶冬認為現時交投萎縮、價格穩定而大跌可能性低,反映已進入調整期第一階段,料明年下半年或18個月後,當聯儲局正式退市,以及內地地方債務危機爆發時伊始進入長達一年的第二階段。陶冬指,市場對聯儲局加息預期會令按揭息率趨升,而按揭息率每增加100基點便會令相關成本增加12%,令買家卻步。另一方面,當投資於內地基建的信托基金明年到期,而地方政府無法償債時,信貸緊縮致令原來流入本地樓市的流動性大減,樓市因此進一步受壓。(J)

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