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印度央行總裁 @ 2013-09-21T05: Back Hot News
Keyword:印度央行 加息
Concept:利率25個 , 印度央行意外加息
印度央行意外升息至7.5%。為抑通脹至可接受水平,印度央行新行長拉詹周五意外將基准回購利率從7.25%提高到7.5%,這是該行自2011年來首次加息。彭博社調查的36位經濟學家此前都預測利率不變。印度還將邊際貸款工具利率從10.25%下調至9.5%,並放松銀行的現金儲備金要求。
印度央行意外加息抗通脹
儲備已從兩年前可以支撐10個月的進口降至目前的4個月。考慮到印度的進口匯率彈性小,而出口競爭力相對較低,貶值的一個直接後果就是經常項目赤字將繼續攀高。由於盧比貶值的預期依舊存在,外資流出勢必會加劇,而本該流入印度的外資會選擇繼續觀望,這不可避免地將導致印度資本賬戶收支惡化。如果要扭轉盧比跌勢,印度央行要麼拋售美元,要麼升息。不過,在目前的情形下,境外做空盧比的資金越聚越多,若拋售美元,除了加速印度外匯儲備的枯竭外,不會產生任何預期效果;如果加息,很可能會進一步重挫股市。如此看來,留給印度央行的政策空間實在有限。

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