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鮮菜價格下降拉低CPI @ 2013-06-10T04: Back Hot News
Keyword:菜價 經濟 同比
Concept:2013年5月份居民消費價格
價格數據低於我們的預期,CPI從分項分析來說,菜價下滑較多仍是主因,但由於季節性下跌對同比比值影響有限,低於預期的根本因素來自於非食品價格的滑落,這種滑落顯示價格體系的走勢並不是供給主導,而是需求側。從PPI的數據仍然印證了這一結論,目前在國際市場上,仍舊呈現金融和經濟前熱後冷的背離,導致美元指數上漲和需求疲軟共存,對大宗商品價格產生負面影響。我們仍然認為價格因素處於上行區間,而這次上行主因是翹尾因素,考慮到環比仍較為低迷,價格短期不會對政策產生約束作用。
國家統計局今日發布數據顯示,5月份CPI同比上漲2.1%,PPI同比下降2.9%。對此,國家信息中心經濟預測部首席經濟師祝寶良在接受中國網財經中心采訪時表示,5月份CPI漲幅低於預期主要受蔬菜價格下跌較多影響。此外,由於產能嚴重過剩等為結構性因素導致PPI同比下降,貨幣政策面臨兩難,是否放松需進一步觀察。

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