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速評:CPI升溫屬預期下半年通脹壓力增 @ 2013-01-11T12: Back Hot News
Keyword:內地 上漲 上月 月通脹 漲幅
Concept:預期食品價格上漲 , 2012年12月份
內地將於本周五(11日)公布上月CPI及PPI數據,報告預期,去年12月食品價格受天氣影響超預期上漲影響,短期CPI漲幅可能略超預期,因此將12月CPI按年漲幅預測由2.3%升至2.5%。但天氣影響限於短期,加之總需求仍然偏弱,故該行不改變今年通脹溫和的判斷,預計全年CPI漲幅為2.7%。
【大行言論】中金彭文生:內地經濟復蘇強度減弱,料上月通脹2.5%今年2.7%
陶冬表示,內地經濟已穩定下來,硬陸風險緩和,加上中央新領導層會將經濟結構轉型放在首要位置,故將明年內地經濟增長預測由7.7%調高至8%。他又估計,明年內地平均通脹率將維持在1.7%左右,但受豬肉價格上漲影響,明年5月通脹將漲至2.5%以上。至於出口方面,陶冬認為,已走出今夏的低谷,只要美國能避過財政懸崖,估計明年出口有低單位數增長。陶冬又表示,港府推出壓抑炒樓措施,並未能「對症下藥」,因本港屬資金自由流動城市,新招僅對壓抑炒樓帶來短期效用,亦無方法解決,認為目前本港樓價及租金已達瘋狂地步,政府長遠應增加土地供應。

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