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10月經濟數據今日公布CPI或現年內「雙底」 @ 2012-11-09T08: Back Hot News
Keyword:大陸 通脹 壓力不大 CPI 通膨 明年通
Concept:明年通膨壓力不大 , 大陸國家統計局公布10月
不僅是10月份,整個四季度的物價漲勢都預計較為溫和。中國銀行國際金融研究所高級分析師周景彤對《經濟參考報》記者說,『總體來看,四季度物價將觸底回升,但是這並不意味著物價進入上漲周期。目前生豬存欄量仍處於相對高位,供給無憂,豬肉價格上升空間不宜誇大。國際糧食價格處於築頂,同時大陸糧食除大豆以外自給自足率較高。目前現貨價格除大豆漲勢較大外,其他糧食價格漲勢平穩。食品價格持續推高C PI上升的可能性不大。同時,翹尾因素不斷變小甚至消失、PPI負增長幅度較大對C PI傳導壓力有限、經濟增長疲軟等因素也對物價進一步上漲構成約束。初步分析,預計四季度CPI上漲2.2%,依然處在較低區間。未來幾個月通脹可控,不應過分擔心,這為宏觀政策繼續放松創造了較大空間。』
而說到復雜多變的外部環境,則包括國際糧價上漲、對美聯儲QE3的預期兩個方面。自6月以來,受美國、俄羅斯等主要產糧地干旱的刺激,國際玉米價格飆升50%,已升至歷史高點,大豆和小麥價格也上漲約30%。由於中國約有80%以上大豆依賴進口,豆價上漲勢必推高國內糧價,進而傳導至CPI,構成通脹壓力;央行擔心,美聯儲開啟QE3後,如果中國大陸盲目跟進,勢必將令通脹承壓,正如此前QE2期間所經歷的那樣。這些都不能不使央行延緩了放松貨幣的步子。

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