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港通脹回升至3.8% 高於預期熱錢流入匯豐料物價續回升 @ 2012-10-23T07: Back Hot News
Keyword:通脹 本港
Concept:本港通脹升幅 , 9月份的消費物價指數
本港通脹輕微回升,9月的消費物價指數(CPI)按年上升3.8%,較市場預期的3.5%為高,而較8月份的通脹率3.8%,上升1個百分點。剔除所有政府一次性紓困措施的影響,9月基本通脹率實際為3.9%,較8月的3.7%為高。
(綜合報道)(星島日報報道)本港樓價升勢持續,今年政府統計數字中,首七個月中小住宅樓價升一成三,最新單位樓價相等家庭十二年收入水平。事實上,今年本港通脹升幅放緩,物價指數按年每月變動升介於一點六至最高為六點一個百分點,按此計樓價升值更為理想,成為抵抗通脹有效資產之一。
其實所謂物價穩定,市場以至經濟學界普遍共識就是不高於2%-3%的通脹率,但過低的通脹,甚至通縮同樣對經濟發展沒有好處,其破壞力更加遠大於通脤。就以香港為例,在本世紀初科網股泡沫爆破後出現的通縮,幾乎令本港經濟「翻唔到身」,企業以至個人都因為價格向下預期延遲消費和投資,形成經濟下行螺旋(DOWNWARD SPIRAL),而利率低企亦引發流動性陷阱(LIQUIDITY TRAP),令貨幣政策的刺激經濟作用失效(本港同時因為聯匯而沒有減息導致實質利率高企,令經濟疲弱問題更加嚴重),此解釋了為何很多中央銀行家認為處理通縮遠較通脹困難。

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