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估Q2衰退仍「保2」 主計總處:全年GDP 2. @ 2012-07-31T11: Back Hot News
Keyword:GDP 下修
Concept:預測今年GDP , 主計總處下修經濟成長率
環球透視(GLOBAL INSIGHT)近日再度下修美國、歐盟、大陸全年經濟成長(GDP)預測,分別調降至2.1%、-0.2%與7.8%。由於GI公布的數據,為主計總處預估景氣時重要參考,外界推估,主計總處月底下修GDP,幾乎已成定局。
行政院主計總處31日一如預期七度下修全年經濟成長預估,全年GDP成長估值調整至2.08%,較5月估值3.03%調降0.95個百分點,在國內主要機構中,僅優於中研院的1.94%估值,其中,第二季為負0.16%,為11季以來的新低,較上回預測值0.77%降低0.93個百分點。,較上回預測值0.77%降低0.93個百分點。
對於經濟成長率是否下修,主計總處官員不願透露,官員指出,會參考環球透視機構(GLOBAL INSIGHT)對全球經濟成長率下修,及其與台灣主要貿易國經濟成長率下修等數據。
值得注意的是,主計總處在5月25日公布今年的經濟成長率預測值為3.03%,驚險保3%的成長,31日將公布第2季國民所得概估及更新經濟成長率預測,全年GDP成長是否下修3%以下,甚受矚目。

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