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市場回音—中國二季度GDP可能錄得三年低點 @ 2012-07-13T11: Back Hot News
Keyword:經濟 二季度GDP GDP增速
Concept:15位經濟 , 公布2012年二季度GDP增速
市場幾乎一致預測,二季度GDP增速將低於8%。「二季度『破8』的可能性較大,我們預測為7.8%左右。」交通銀行首席經濟學家連平對《經濟參考報》記者說。
預計第二季度GDP增速破八,在7.6%左右,低於第一季度的增速,這次中國經濟失速下行,成為全球經濟增速下降的縮影。這是危險的信號。
高盛集團中國投資管理部副主席哈繼銘表示,中國經濟二季度GDP增速將低於8%,政府因此會加大決心來提振經濟,貨幣、財政政策進一步放松的空間也隨之出現。尤其是在外需仍然疲軟的情況下,為了經濟穩定增長,政府會用多種手段來拉動內需。
然而,在筆者看來,在一個債務收縮期,央行降息更似財務手段,而非經濟刺激手段。因為經濟增速下滑迅速,而且生產流通領域發生通縮,使得居民及企業部門債務實際融資利率已經顯著高於GDP實際增速。兩次降息後,全部貸款實際加權利息為9.15%,一般貸款實際加權利息為9.45%,而二季度GDP增速實際水平或只有7%。

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