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星展料內地今年通脹3-4% @ 2012-02-10T03: Back Hot News
Keyword:星展
Concept:經濟師梁兆基 , 星展料內地今年通脹
星展銀行(香港)經濟研究部高級經濟師梁兆基表示,內地1月通脹數據雖高於預期,但並不意外,因農歷春節對食品需求大,且今年春節時間較去年提早,加上去年1月基數較低。他預計,內地2月份通脹或回落,全年預計介乎3.5%-4%水平。
星展香港高級經濟師梁兆基表示,內地上月通脹率回升,部份受到農歷新年對食品需求強大影響,估計今個月的通脹率將回落,預期全年通脹放緩到百分之三點五至四。他認為,今次數據不會改變中央的貨幣政策,仍會在穩定中逐步放松,預計存款准備金率最多每季下調一次,息口則保持穩定。梁兆基預計,內地樓價今年將跌一至兩成,認為中央不會立即放松樓市調控,因為現時負利率,資金又欠缺出路,一旦放松將令積存十八個月的購買力釋放出來,或引起資產泡沫。另外,他預期,今年內地出口表現不理想,貿易順差收窄,將令人民幣升值步伐減慢,全年計升百分之三。
月的4﹒1%升至4﹒5%,令人擔心中國通脹仍未受控,但星展銀行(香港)經濟研究部高級

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