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標普預計3萬億平台貸或延長期限 @ 2012-01-13T08: Back Hot News
Keyword:標普 貸款 地方
Concept:
標普方面稱,目前還無法確定滿足延長期限條件的地方政府融資平台貸款的實際規模。但是曾怡景同時告訴記者,「假設這一數字可能高達3萬億元人民幣(接近2011年末貸款總額的5%),監管容忍將在未來3年內每年將信貸損失人為降低800億~1000億元。如果地方政府不提供任何支持,那麼地方政府融資平台貸款中的約30%將在未來3年成為不良貸款。」
雖然監管容忍可降低最近1、2年銀行賬面不良貸款的金額,但可能無助於徹底改善問題貸款的質量。標准普爾預計地方融資平台貸款中約30%的貸款將在未來3年內成為不良貸款(標准普爾將還本付息難度大、不還風險高的貸款也看成不良貸款),給銀行帶來7、8個百分點左右的不良貸款,加上銀行業目前1%左右的不良貸款率,總的不良貸款率可能達到9%~10%的水平。

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