February 27, 2013
Australian economy
Wednesday (27th) early European market trading, AUDUSD fell below the 1.02 mark, to a low of 1.0189, refresh the new low of four and a half months. Italian election results bring about political mix for the country, and continue to push Australian dollar lower. Investors worried about the resurgence of the European debt crisis.
The market attention is focused on Italian Treasury auction of five-year and ten-year periods, and this is the first medium-and long-term government bond auctions in Italy after the general election deadlock and is considered as indicators of market confidence.
Goldman Sachs said that as the world's major central banks and sovereign wealth funds asset demand on the Australian dollar continues to heat up, Goldman Sachs is expanding Australian dollar fixed-income business in order to grasp the business opportunities.
The RBA officials pointed out that the RBA will consider cutting its benchmark interest rate to alleviate the pressure exerted on the economy by high Australian dollar; this opinion suppressed the Australian dollar. Australian officials’ attitude to suppress the strong Australian dollar remains unchanged, the recent Australian economic data continued to weaken, and the continuing weakness in gold price tumbled investor confidence on the Australian dollar. However, the U.S. deficit cut gives the Australian dollar medium-term support, the room for the Australian dollar to go down has been very limited space.
Australian dollar
After the AUDUSD maintained itself at the level of 1.022 to 1.037 for half a month, it yesterday fell below the range. AUDUSD was down the third consecutive trading day, and hit the period low. In short term Australian dollar is expected to continue to fall, could touch 1.0150 level. Analysts recommend investors to short sell the AUDUSD at 1.0215 level, looking at 1.0100, cut loss at 1. 0320.
AUDUSD maintains the downward trend; market outlook is expected to continue to fall. Australian dollar falls down to the 1.02 support, reported at 1.0186, short-term rapidly move towards 1.0150. Concerned about the 1.0150 support level and rebounded resistance at 1.0230-1. 0250. Expected AUDUSD to go further towards 1.0130, recommend selling at high positions.
The short-term point of view, if the Australian dollar cannot be supported in the 1.0200 level, the Australian dollar may continue to decline. The AUD’s obvious support is near October 2012 low of 1.0140.
|
